Travis Outlaw’s Game

By: Victor Nash

Now that the Nets have finalized the signing of Travis Outlaw to a five year, 35 million dollar deal, we at The Nets Nation are here to give you the X’s and O’s of his game.

Many people think that the Outlaw contract was grossly overpaying for a lifelong bench player with no potential to improve. This is an incorrect assumption. Outlaw is only 25 and has plenty of potential to improve. His contract was not the best possible contract, but in this free agency market, it was not terrible.

One of Outlaw’s big strengths is his ability to make shots and be clutch in the fourth quarter. Outlaw was the most clutch player on the Blazers other than Brandon Roy and is able to score and get to the rim at critical moments in the game. As you can see from that link, Outlaw is great at running isolation plays and can burn teams with this play late in the game. The Nets really had no leadership at the end of games, which resulted in rushed shots, or just turnovers at the end of games by Terrence Williams. With this new leadership, the Nets will at least have a plan at the end of games, and can move on from there giving the team some confidence and an identity.

Defensively, Outlaw is not too special. He weighs in at 207 pounds, and is 6-9., meaning that he is not really big enough to guard PFs. He might be able to guard an undersized PF like himself, such as Antony Randolph, but would never be able to keep up with a guy like Kevin Garnett, or even Kevin Love. He is bad at defending the post, and is more of a one on one perimeter defender, so the only time he should really play PF on the defensive end is when the Nets need to go small. Outlaw is more suited to guard the 3, and he can use his incredible length and athleticism to disrupt shots and get the occasional block or two. The biggest problem with Outlaw is that his footwork is just not good enough to enable him to guard the better and quicker small forwards of the league, and this keeps him from being an elite defender. With the proper coaching(Avery Johnson), Outlaw could be taught to use his length more effectively and improve his footwork, which would make him an above-average defender and perhaps a decent shot blocker. He has some defensive potential and is definitely not going to hurt us on that side of the floor.

Other than his defense, there is one big reason why I don’t want Outlaw to see too much playing time as a PF. He just doesn’t get rebounds. He has the length and body to at least get 6 rebounds a game, but he has never averaged more than 4.6 in his career. His total rebound rate of 9.9 was exactly league average, but for a guy with his physical talent he should be able to have a better rate than that. Even in his best year, his TRR was 10.1, which was just barely over league average. It seems to me that Outlaw just doesn’t have the focus to become an efficient rebounder, but it is possible that with the Little General yelling in his ear, he could become a slightly above-average rebounder, just like his defense. The Nets can’t have their PF be just an average rebounder in the league(remember this TRR stat includes guards) and expect to shake the rebounding nightmares of last season.

In terms of his playmaking abilities, Outlaw is about average as a passer and playmaker as well. He averaged 1 assist per game last year, and has never averaged more than 1.3 in his career, which is well below the league average for SFs, while consistently playing 25 minutes a game or more . However, in his career his shots that came from assists were always about 60% of his shots in the season. Only last year’s injury plagued season dipped below this number. This shows us that Outlaw looks more for his own shot while he is on the court. Considering his talents and his bad court vision, this is not  necessarily a bad thing, as he can help the team more by driving to the basket and shooting the ball.

Another one of his strengths does not show up on the court, but does show up everywhere else: his great personality. Outlaw was a fan favorite in Portland and his southern drawl and down-to-earth personality led him to be a great guy in the locker room and with fans. The Nets have no real veterans to rely upon during the regular season for leadership, like they did last year in the form of Keyon Dooling and Trenton Hassell, and this signing will provide them with something similar. He can keep a group of guys together, and that is something that is very credible, considering the massive egos that many NBA players have.

But Outlaw’s biggest strength is undoubtedly his shot. He gives the Nets the stretch 3 that they desired and the shooter we’ve been waiting for. Outlaw shot nearly 40% from 3 last year, and 44% from 16-23 out, until his trade to the Clippers. His midrange shot(10-15 feet) is good too, as he has shot over 40% at all points of his career. With the addition of Anthony Morrow and Travis Outlaw, this basically means that the play by play of the third quarter will no longer read, Harris misses jumper, Williams misses jumper, Lee misses jumper, Humphries misses jumper. Outlaw and Morrow can provide the Nets with slump-breakers to keep the Nets involved and never fall too behind in a game.

Outlaw’s drive is not bad, as he is big enough to get to the basket and convert, shooting above 60% at the rim, until his injury plagued 09-10 season. He can use this asset well and can burn defenders with his drive during games, but still needs to work on his footwork and his dribble penetration.

Some notable transactions and events of his career are his trade to the Clippers and foot injury last year. The trade to the Clippers was not too popular, as he was basically traded for Marcus Camby, one of the best shot blockers in history. His stats also visibly decreased after the trade, but I think this was because he was used to the Blazers system, not the Clipper one. If given one training camp in L.A. he probably could have fixed that.

His foot injury was the only notable injury he has had in his entire career but it was a pretty severe one. However, it should not happen again as the bone has fully recovered, and as long as the same sequence doesn’t happen again, he should be fine.

To summarize, Outlaw is guaranteed to be a great role player. He can shoot, and help space the floor increasing the Nets’ offensive capabilities, and can definitely improve on the defensive end, as well as his rebounding. Outlaw is only 25 and has time to improve. I think that he can end up being the fourth or fifth option for a contending team, and if the rumors that the Nets were competing against another team for his services are true, then the Nets didn’t really over pay for him, as many think. Outlaw will be an exciting player, and is a player I look forward to watching.